The German Institute for Economic Research has published the first independent audit of Germany's new electric car grant, and the single largest brand beneficiary is Tesla. In DIW Wochenbericht 40/2026, Wolf-Peter Schill, Adeline Guéret and Adrián Santonja find that Tesla accounts for 16 per cent of all subsidised battery-electric cars — ahead of Škoda on 9 per cent, and ahead of Cupra, Volkswagen, Hyundai and Leapmotor on about 6 per cent each.
That matches what TeslAnt found in the BAFA approval data in September. DIW's contribution is the judgement attached to it.
Who the money has gone to
As of 1 September 2026, measured across 52,473 approved applications worth 230 million euros:
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average grant per car | 4,380 euros |
| Battery-electric share of approvals | 91% |
| Plug-in hybrid share | 9% |
| Recipients earning under 45,000 euros | 51% |
| Households without children under 18 | 67% |
| Leased rather than bought | about 50%, against 25% in the wider market |
| Average list price, subsidised BEV | 36,800 euros |
The income tiering is working in the direction intended: half of all recipients sit in the lowest band, and only 3 per cent earn between 80,000 and 90,000 euros. Minis and compacts are over-represented against the electric market as a whole, which is what a scheme weighted to cheaper cars should produce.
The wider market context is the strongest part of the report. One in four new German cars registered in the first eight months of 2026 was battery-electric, against roughly 19 per cent across 2025, and about 32 per cent in August alone. Germany now has 2.5 million battery-electric cars on the road — still only 5 per cent of a fleet of some 50 million. DIW's title says a record year is in sight.
The industrial policy is not working
This is where the report turns critical, and where Tesla's 16 per cent becomes the point.
| Origin of subsidised BEVs | Share | Share of the whole BEV market |
|---|---|---|
| German brands | 21% | 47% |
| European brands | 55% | 74% |
| United States | 17% | — |
| France | 13% | — |
| China | 12% | — |
| South Korea | 12% | — |
German manufacturers take 47 per cent of all electric sales in Germany and only 21 per cent of the subsidised ones, because they are weakest in the small, cheap segment the grant rewards. DIW's conclusion is blunt: the industrial-policy effect "is likely to have been limited so far".
That is the local-content argument from a different direction. Berlin has been weighing conditions tying the grant to European production, and on these numbers Tesla would again sit on both sides of the line — the Model Y is built in Brandenburg, the Model 3 is not.
The caveat the authors put first
DIW does not claim the grant is creating demand. Prior research suggests roughly a third of subsidised sales would have happened anyway, and Schill's summary is that many of these cars "would probably have been purchased" without the money. The scheme's social targeting is also attached to the registered holder rather than the driver, which the authors note can be worked around within a family.
Their recommendations: stop subsidising plug-in hybrids at once, because real-world PHEVs emit around six times their type-approval CO2; do not add a price cap, which would cost more in administration than it saves against a 3-billion-euro ceiling; and prioritise regulatory certainty over cash.
What this means for owners in Europe's biggest EV market
Nothing here changes eligibility or amounts. The useful signal is the burn rate: 230 million euros of 3 billion is committed, the grant is demonstrably popular, and the absence of a price cap now has an institute arguing it should stay absent. If you qualify, the case for applying sooner rather than later is unchanged.