Tesla registered 121,822 new cars in California in the first nine months of 2026, 10% fewer than a year earlier. The state's zero-emission market shrank by a quarter over the same period. Those two numbers together are the story of the third-quarter California Auto Outlook, published this month by the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) from Experian registration data: Tesla sold less and came out with a larger share of the electric market than it had a year ago.
The numbers
| California, January to September | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All new light vehicles | 1,373,474 | 1,315,522 | -4.2% |
| Zero-emission vehicles | 291,535 | 215,467 | -26.1% |
| Zero-emission share | 21.0% (full year) | 16.4% | |
| Hybrid share (excluding plug-ins) | 19.5% (full year) | 22.8% | |
| Tesla registrations | 135,293 | 121,822 | -10.0% |
| Tesla share of zero-emission registrations | 46.4% | 56.5% | +10.1 points |
| Tesla share of all new vehicles | 9.9% | 9.3% | -0.6 points |
The quarter itself was the first of 2026 in which the state's market grew: 454,317 registrations, up 3.9%. Electric cars did not share in it. Zero-emission registrations were 78,478, a 17.3% share, against 108,762 and 24.9% in the third quarter of 2025, when buyers pulled purchases forward ahead of the federal tax credit's expiry on 30 September 2025, the same base effect TeslAnt described in the national figures. Tesla's quarter was 43,994 cars, down 15.4%, for 9.7% of the state market.
Why the share went up
Because the rest of the electric market fell faster. Every volume brand except Toyota lost ground, and several lost more than half.
| Brand | Zero-emission registrations, Jan to Sep 2026 | Change | Share of segment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 121,822 | -10.0% | 56.5% |
| Hyundai | 14,170 | -23.4% | 6.6% |
| Toyota | 9,538 | +132.5% | 4.4% |
| BMW | 7,426 | -45.3% | 3.4% |
| Rivian | 6,966 | -20.1% | 3.2% |
| Chevrolet | 6,730 | -55.1% | 3.1% |
| Kia | 6,640 | -8.3% | 3.1% |
| Ford | 6,326 | -55.0% | 2.9% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 2,837 | -68.8% | 1.3% |
The Model Y, at 86,099 registrations, is still the best-selling vehicle of any kind in California, ahead of the Toyota Camry at 52,224 and the Honda Civic at 42,238, and it holds 57.9% of its segment. The Model 3, at 27,303, is the fourth-best-selling passenger car and takes 40.1% of the near-luxury class. The Model S registered 2,043. Hybrids, meanwhile, now outsell zero-emission cars in the state for the first time in the years the report tabulates, 22.8% to 16.4%, and petrol-only cars rose to 56.3% of the market from 54.0% in 2025.
Read from Europe
California accounts for 28.9% of US zero-emission registrations, and its 16.4% electric share is nearly three times the national 6.2%. It is also moving the opposite way to Tesla's European markets. France's battery-electric share reached a record 41.6% in September and the Netherlands passed half; in California the share is falling and hybrids are taking the growth. What the two sides have in common is Tesla's position in them: the Model Y is the best-selling car outright in California as it is in Norway and France, on volumes that are lower than a year ago.
CNCDA's own forecast is for 1.75 million registrations in California for the full year, down 2.7%, with a small decline likely again in 2027, and it names affordability as the constraint: rising interest rates, tariff-driven prices and incomes that trail inflation. The report lists those constraints; it does not apportion the hybrid shift between them and the loss of the federal credit a year ago.