Tesla has published its company-compiled delivery consensus for the second quarter of 2026, and the headline number is a cautious one: Wall Street now expects the company to hand over 406,024 vehicles in the three months to 30 June. The figure, drawn from 22 analysts, would mark a modest recovery after two consecutive years of falling sales.
What the consensus says
The consensus pools estimates from 22 banks and research firms, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wedbush, Barclays and UBS. Tesla compiles and releases the figure itself ahead of each quarter, partly to anchor expectations before the official delivery report lands in early July.
| Segment | Expected Q2 2026 deliveries |
|---|---|
| Model 3 / Model Y | 392,625 |
| Other models (S, X, Cybertruck) | 12,978 |
| Total | 406,024 |
At 406,024 vehicles, the consensus implies 5.7% growth over the 384,122 cars Tesla delivered in Q2 2025. NotATeslaApp notes the number also points to roughly 12% growth quarter-on-quarter, alongside a far steeper 36% jump in energy-storage deployments — a reminder that Tesla's energy business is now expanding much faster than its car deliveries.
Some banks are more bullish
Not every analyst is sitting on the consensus. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney told clients the bank had lifted its own Q2 estimate to 420,000 units, up from 405,000, citing regional sales data that suggests Tesla is outperforming the roughly 400,000-unit consensus tracked by Visible Alpha. In other words, the company-compiled figure may prove conservative if recent momentum holds.
Why it matters for Europe
For European owners and prospective buyers, the deliveries print is more than a Wall Street talking point. Much of the predicted recovery rests on Europe, where Tesla's registrations have climbed for several months after a difficult 2025. The refreshed Model Y, regional purchase incentives and stubbornly high fuel prices have all helped pull buyers back, and Gigafactory Berlin is ramping output to keep pace.
A stronger quarter would reinforce the case that Tesla's European slump has bottomed out. A miss, by contrast, would raise fresh questions about whether the rebound is durable or merely seasonal.
The caveats
Consensus numbers are estimates, not results. Tesla's actual Q2 figure — the only one that counts — is due in the first days of July, and the company has both beaten and missed its own compiled consensus in past quarters. Delivery totals can also swing on end-of-quarter logistics, with cars in transit slipping from one quarter into the next.
For now, the message is one of cautious optimism: analysts expect growth, a few expect rather more of it, and the official scorecard is only days away.