Tesla's European slide shows no sign of stopping. January 2026 registration data from five key markets confirms a 43.9% year-over-year decline, extending a losing streak that now spans more than two years.
The Numbers
| Country | Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1,140 | 661 | -42.0% |
| Sweden | 405 | 512 | +26.4% |
| Denmark | 444 | 458 | +3.2% |
| Netherlands | 927 | 307 | -66.9% |
| Norway | 689 | 83 | -88.0% |
| Total | 3,605 | 2,021 | -43.9% |
The Norway collapse is the headline figure. An 88% drop, from 689 units to just 83, correlates directly with the country's decision to discontinue most EV purchase incentives from 1 January 2026. This is the same market that showed +41% growth in the 2025 full-year data, driven by buyers rushing to beat that exact deadline.
A Worsening Trajectory
The rate of decline is accelerating. Tesla's European contraction has progressed through three distinct phases:
- 2023 to 2024: approximately 10% decline
- 2024 to 2025: 27.8% decline (326,000 to 235,000 units)
- January 2026: 43.9% decline in the five tracked markets
France and the Netherlands — both historically strong Tesla markets — posted severe drops of 42% and 67% respectively. These are not marginal declines; they represent a fundamental shift in buyer behaviour.
What Is Driving This
The familiar combination of factors continues to compound: an ageing product line through most of the previous year, intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers (BYD in particular), shifting European incentive structures, and what industry analysts consistently attribute to reputational headwinds linked to CEO Elon Musk's political activities.
Sweden and Denmark offer slim consolation. Sweden's 26% gain comes off an exceptionally weak January 2025 base, when the market collapsed 67% — this is a partial recovery, not new growth. Denmark's 3% rise is essentially flat.
Looking Ahead
The refreshed Model Y lineup — including the new Standard Long Range RWD and the upcoming 7-seater variant — may begin to shift the curve as 2026 progresses. But January's data suggests that price and product alone may not be enough to reverse two years of accumulated damage in Europe's most important EV markets.